Will CR Flamengo vs. Grêmio FBPA end in a draw?

16 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 98¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 4

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

Total Value

$19.0K

Combined PnL

-$123.61

Smart Money Entry

93.8¢ → 98.2¢

+5% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No16 traders

Total Value$18.3K

Total Shares19,114

Combined PnL+$205.11

Yes8 traders

Total Value$625.41

Total Shares12,575

Combined PnL-$328.72

No — 67%Yes — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 95.3¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$107	51% 24233-22959 (47192)
ZaiZoiBele	Noavg 99¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$21.2	80% 5236-1333 (6569)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 91¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	-$1.14	50% 27770-27632 (55402)
NM NM-P	Noavg 90.6¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	+$10	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
GC GC-P	Noavg 90.7¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$5.92	39% 1339-2113 (3452)
oieshfn345	Noavg 91¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$21.7	58% 1993-1472 (3465)
RN1	Noavg 90¢	$728.4	$755.91	+$27.51	53% 60065-52434 (112499)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 95¢	$385.95	$388.69	+$2.74	47% 11082-12418 (23500)
DI dips.	Noavg 98¢	$255.62	$264.57	+$8.94	47% 10359-11793 (22152)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 9.2¢	$428.1	$209.09	-$219.02	52% 1162-1079 (2241)
0xheavy888	Noavg 90¢	$180	$181	+$1	56% 7724-6188 (13912)
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 9.2¢	$270.64	$162.46	-$108.17	54% 1193-1031 (2224)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 9.4¢	$136.96	$138.28	+$1.32	52% 1149-1045 (2194)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Noavg 94.8¢	$129.88	$128.25	-$1.63	52% 14229-13002 (27231)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 95¢	$95	$98.15	+$3.15	53% 22636-19888 (42524)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 98.1¢	$89.77	$90.1	+$0.33	50% 36339-35820 (72159)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Noavg 95.2¢	$68.17	$62.25	-$5.92	61% 2374-1499 (3873)
claudionetotraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$50.02	$51.25	+$1.23	56% 1360-1090 (2450)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.4¢	$36.13	$32.64	-$3.49	51% 1095-1048 (2143)
CA CannaeCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$22.1	$22.2	+$0.1	53% 16518-14663 (31181)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 90¢	$21.05	$20.93	-$0.12	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$9.64	$9.24	-$0.4	49% 14327-15003 (29330)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 87.9¢	$132.61	$7.78	+$4.42	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.52	$0.25	-$0.27	49% 2670-2811 (5481)

Flaznorp

Invested

$4,287.48

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$107

Record

51%

24233-22959 (47192)

ZaiZoiBele

Invested

$3,940.11

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$21.2

Record

80%

5236-1333 (6569)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,763.44

Value

$2.8K

PnL

-$1.14

Record

50%

27770-27632 (55402)

NM-P

Invested

$2,108.63

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$10

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

GC-P

Invested

$1,770.75

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$5.92

Record

39%

1339-2113 (3452)

oieshfn345

Invested

$1,291.95

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$21.7

Record

58%

1993-1472 (3465)

RN1

Invested

$728.4

Value

$755.91

PnL

+$27.51

Record

53%

60065-52434 (112499)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$385.95

Value

$388.69

PnL

+$2.74

Record

47%

11082-12418 (23500)

dips.

Invested

$255.62

Value

$264.57

PnL

+$8.94

Record

47%

10359-11793 (22152)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$428.1

Value

$209.09

PnL

-$219.02

Record

52%

1162-1079 (2241)

0xheavy888

Invested

$180

Value

$181

PnL

+$1

Record

56%

7724-6188 (13912)

LimousinCTR

Yes

Invested

$270.64

Value

$162.46

PnL

-$108.17

Record

54%

1193-1031 (2224)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$136.96

Value

$138.28

PnL

+$1.32

Record

52%

1149-1045 (2194)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Invested

$129.88

Value

$128.25

PnL

-$1.63

Record

52%

14229-13002 (27231)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$95

Value

$98.15

PnL

+$3.15

Record

53%

22636-19888 (42524)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$89.77

Value

$90.1

PnL

+$0.33

Record

50%

36339-35820 (72159)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Invested

$68.17

Value

$62.25

PnL

-$5.92

Record

61%

2374-1499 (3873)

claudionetotraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$50.02

Value

$51.25

PnL

+$1.23

Record

56%

1360-1090 (2450)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.13

Value

$32.64

PnL

-$3.49

Record

51%

1095-1048 (2143)

CannaeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.1

Value

$22.2

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

16518-14663 (31181)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$21.05

Value

$20.93

PnL

-$0.12

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.64

Value

$9.24

PnL

-$0.4

Record

49%

14327-15003 (29330)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$132.61

Value

$7.78

PnL

+$4.42

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.52

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$0.27

Record

49%

2670-2811 (5481)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

16 of 24 top traders (67%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.2%

98.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.