Holstein Kiel vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld: O/U 1.5

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (47%) · Over at 76¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 7

Over76¢Under24¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 47%

Total Value

$3.4K

Combined PnL

-$79.71

Smart Money Entry

81.1¢ → 75.6¢

-7% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under24%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares3,094

Combined PnL-$165.45

Under8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares4,833

Combined PnL+$85.74

Over — 47%Under — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b	Overavg 75¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$8.48	53% 232-209 (441)
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 89.5¢	$1.0K	$846.95	-$155.32	50% 28918-28732 (57650)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 23.4¢	$383.99	$359.49	-$24.5	51% 27202-25761 (52963)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Underavg 15.7¢	$187.69	$260.05	+$72.35	48% 1767-1905 (3672)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 19.3¢	$168.26	$203.3	+$35.04	49% 1833-1925 (3758)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 22.9¢	$143.73	$146.88	+$3.14	50% 1843-1850 (3693)
WA WagerWizard	Overavg 76.9¢	$105.39	$106.74	+$1.35	84% 15063-2928 (17991)
CI cigarettes<$100	Overavg 98¢	$98	$78.2	-$19.8	53% 24340-21400 (45740)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 23.1¢	$69.19	$66.45	-$2.74	46% 1788-2098 (3886)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$33.58	$35.72	+$2.14	50% 21541-21839 (43380)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 21.6¢	$19.17	$19.36	+$0.19	53% 62307-54551 (116858)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 74.5¢	$14.9	$14.8	+$0.2	58% 47486-34282 (81768)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 74¢	$11.1	$11.33	+$0.22	50% 26397-26018 (52415)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Overavg 90¢	$4.5	$3.91	-$0.59	35% 19620-37183 (56803)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 11¢	$0.12	$0.24	+$0.12	51% 38217-37441 (75658)

0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39b

Over

Invested

$1,272.72

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$8.48

Record

53%

232-209 (441)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$1,002.27

Value

$846.95

PnL

-$155.32

Record

50%

28918-28732 (57650)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$383.99

Value

$359.49

PnL

-$24.5

Record

51%

27202-25761 (52963)

MadridTimeCTR

Under

Invested

$187.69

Value

$260.05

PnL

+$72.35

Record

48%

1767-1905 (3672)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$168.26

Value

$203.3

PnL

+$35.04

Record

49%

1833-1925 (3758)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$143.73

Value

$146.88

PnL

+$3.14

Record

50%

1843-1850 (3693)

WagerWizard

Over

Invested

$105.39

Value

$106.74

PnL

+$1.35

Record

84%

15063-2928 (17991)

cigarettes<$100

Over

Invested

$98

Value

$78.2

PnL

-$19.8

Record

53%

24340-21400 (45740)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$69.19

Value

$66.45

PnL

-$2.74

Record

46%

1788-2098 (3886)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.58

Value

$35.72

PnL

+$2.14

Record

50%

21541-21839 (43380)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$19.17

Value

$19.36

PnL

+$0.19

Record

53%

62307-54551 (116858)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$14.9

Value

$14.8

PnL

+$0.2

Record

58%

47486-34282 (81768)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$11.1

Value

$11.33

PnL

+$0.22

Record

50%

26397-26018 (52415)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Over

Invested

$4.5

Value

$3.91

PnL

-$0.59

Record

35%

19620-37183 (56803)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.12

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.12

Record

51%

38217-37441 (75658)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 15 top traders (47%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.5%

75.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.