Wonju DB Promy vs. Seoul Thunders

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Wonju DB Promy (43%) · Wonju DB Promy at 100¢ · $122K held · ends Nov 14

Wonju DB Promy>99¢Seoul Thunders<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Wonju DB Promy

Consensus Traders

Wonju DB Promy 43%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$121.9K

Combined PnL

-$362.72

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 100¢

+82% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidWonju DB Promy at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wonju DB Promy

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Wonju DB Promy100%

Seoul Thunders0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Seoul Thunders4 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares4,642

Combined PnL+$465.86

Wonju DB Promy3 traders

Total Value$857.37

Total Shares3,049

Combined PnL-$828.58

Seoul Thunders — 57%Wonju DB Promy — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Wonju DB Promy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWonju DB Promy 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWonju DB Promy 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedWonju DB Promy 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wonju DB Promy 100% · 2

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465ARB<$100	Wonju DB Promyavg 16.7¢	$23.8K	$106.4K	+$82.7K	53% 6319-5602 (11921)
└ Seoul Thunders leg	Seoul Thundersavg 6.3¢	$6.8K	$77.9K	+$71.1K
└ Wonju DB Promy leg	Wonju DB Promyavg 16.7¢	$17.0K	$28.5K	+$11.5K
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Wonju DB Promyavg 20¢	$4.0K	$11.3K	+$7.3K	46% 1755-2052 (3807)
└ Seoul Thunders leg	Seoul Thundersavg 8.9¢	$857.59	$6.9K	+$6.1K
└ Wonju DB Promy leg	Wonju DB Promyavg 20¢	$3.2K	$4.4K	+$1.3K
FL FlaznorpCTR	Seoul Thundersavg 35.8¢	$2.4K	$2.9K	+$517.01	51% 26991-25572 (52563)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Wonju DB Promyavg 55¢	$1.6K	$824.37	-$794.93	50% 2769-2743 (5512)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100	Wonju DB Promyavg 69.6¢	$508.49	$261.52	-$274.33	59% 33180-23350 (56530)
└ Wonju DB Promy leg	Wonju DB Promyavg 69.6¢	$386.87	$155.68	-$258.55
└ Seoul Thunders leg	Seoul Thundersavg 82.7¢	$121.62	$105.84	-$15.78
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Seoul Thundersavg 32¢	$28.16	$63.36	+$35.2	47% 9510-10646 (20156)
CI cigarettesCTR	Seoul Thundersavg 24.7¢	$128.98	$48.16	-$80.81	53% 24138-21186 (45324)
VeryLucky888<$100	Wonju DB Promyavg 55¢	$55	$28	-$34	58% 47408-34193 (81601)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Wonju DB Promyavg 93¢	$4.65	$5	+$0.35	35% 19604-37155 (56759)
dips.CTR<$100	Seoul Thundersavg 2¢	$5.67	$0.14	-$5.53	47% 10970-12572 (23542)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465ARB<$100

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$23,777.3

Value

$106.4K

PnL

+$82.7K

Record

53%

6319-5602 (11921)

Both legs:

Seoul Thunders$6,799.726.3¢+$71.1K

Wonju DB Promy$16,977.5816.7¢+$11.5K

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$4,012.92

Value

$11.3K

PnL

+$7.3K

Record

46%

1755-2052 (3807)

Both legs:

Seoul Thunders$857.598.9¢+$6.1K

Wonju DB Promy$3,155.3320¢+$1.3K

FlaznorpCTR

Seoul Thunders

Invested

$2,408.2

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$517.01

Record

51%

26991-25572 (52563)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$1,619.3

Value

$824.37

PnL

-$794.93

Record

50%

2769-2743 (5512)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846ARB<$100

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$508.49

Value

$261.52

PnL

-$274.33

Record

59%

33180-23350 (56530)

Both legs:

Wonju DB Promy$386.8769.6¢-$258.55

Seoul Thunders$121.6282.7¢-$15.78

lryyyCTR<$100

Seoul Thunders

Invested

$28.16

Value

$63.36

PnL

+$35.2

Record

47%

9510-10646 (20156)

cigarettesCTR

Seoul Thunders

Invested

$128.98

Value

$48.16

PnL

-$80.81

Record

53%

24138-21186 (45324)

VeryLucky888<$100

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$55

Value

$28

PnL

-$34

Record

58%

47408-34193 (81601)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Wonju DB Promy

Invested

$4.65

Value

PnL

+$0.35

Record

35%

19604-37155 (56759)

dips.CTR<$100

Seoul Thunders

Invested

$5.67

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$5.53

Record

47%

10970-12572 (23542)

Research grade

AvoidWonju DB Promy at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Wonju DB Promy

3 of 7 top traders (43%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Wonju DB Promy. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleWonju DB Promy 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrWonju DB Promy 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedWonju DB Promy 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Wonju DB Promy 100% · 2

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wonju DB Promy wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.