Sonic Boom vs. Daegu Pegasus

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Sonic Boom (44%) · Sonic Boom at 100¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 14

Sonic Boom>99¢Daegu Pegasus<1¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sonic Boom

Consensus Traders

Sonic Boom 44%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$693.49

Smart Money Entry

51.3¢ → 100¢

+95% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSonic Boom at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sonic Boom

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Sonic Boom100%

Daegu Pegasus0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sonic Boom4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,302

Combined PnL+$523.81

Daegu Pegasus5 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,722

Combined PnL+$169.69

Sonic Boom — 44%Daegu Pegasus — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Sonic Boomavg 51.5¢	$1.6K	$2.1K	+$508.16	51% 27041-25614 (52655)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Daegu Pegasusavg 45.9¢	$1.4K	$1.8K	+$329.52	46% 1775-2086 (3861)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Daegu Pegasusavg 73¢	$131.71	$80.3	-$51.41	59% 33206-23372 (56578)
VeryLucky888<$100	Sonic Boomavg 54.8¢	$66.74	$62.74	+$0.78	58% 47459-34244 (81703)
D0 0xd089...087f<$100	Sonic Boomavg 42.2¢	$46.43	$61.04	+$14.62	67% 167-84 (251)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Sonic Boomavg 95¢	$4.75	$5	+$0.25	35% 19615-37161 (56776)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Daegu Pegasusavg 3.8¢	$22.35	$0.3	-$22.05	53% 24313-21381 (45694)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Daegu Pegasusavg 31.6¢	$80.86	$0.13	-$80.73	48% 62365-67229 (129594)
dips.CTR<$100	Daegu Pegasusavg 5.2¢	$5.7	$0.05	-$5.64	47% 10993-12612 (23605)

Flaznorp

Sonic Boom

Invested

$1,565.23

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$508.16

Record

51%

27041-25614 (52655)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Daegu Pegasus

Invested

$1,421.83

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$329.52

Record

46%

1775-2086 (3861)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Daegu Pegasus

Invested

$131.71

Value

$80.3

PnL

-$51.41

Record

59%

33206-23372 (56578)

VeryLucky888<$100

Sonic Boom

Invested

$66.74

Value

$62.74

PnL

+$0.78

Record

58%

47459-34244 (81703)

0xd089...087f<$100

Sonic Boom

Invested

$46.43

Value

$61.04

PnL

+$14.62

Record

67%

167-84 (251)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Sonic Boom

Invested

$4.75

Value

PnL

+$0.25

Record

35%

19615-37161 (56776)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Daegu Pegasus

Invested

$22.35

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$22.05

Record

53%

24313-21381 (45694)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Daegu Pegasus

Invested

$80.86

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$80.73

Record

48%

62365-67229 (129594)

dips.CTR<$100

Daegu Pegasus

Invested

$5.7

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$5.64

Record

47%

10993-12612 (23605)

Research grade

AvoidSonic Boom at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Sonic Boom

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sonic Boom wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.