Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on November 1?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$6.0K
$163.97
94¢ → 99.9¢
+6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 90.2¢ | $2.9K | $3.0K | +$122.47 | 66% 2457-1291 (3748) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $3.4K | $2.7K | +$6.7 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
SS ssddssd | Noavg 84¢ | $214.2 | $254.75 | +$40.55 | 52% 338-316 (654) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Yesavg 6.7¢ | $5.83 | $0.09 | -$5.75 | 59% 877-611 (1488) |
Invested
$2,863.18
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$122.47
Record
66%
2457-1291 (3748)
Invested
$3,434.83
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$6.7
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$214.2
Value
$254.75
PnL
+$40.55
Record
52%
338-316 (654)
Invested
$5.83
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$5.75
Record
59%
877-611 (1488)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.