Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 30?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 94¢ · $11K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$11.4K
$40.46
91¢ → 93.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 91.4¢ | $8.7K | $8.7K | +$75.01 | 65% 2335-1260 (3595) |
SS ssddssd | Noavg 88.2¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$98.4 | 51% 323-306 (629) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $618.21 | $619.49 | +$1.27 | 59% 2150-1512 (3662) |
TH thismonthCTR | Yesavg 6¢ | $300 | $275 | -$25 | 34% 577-1125 (1702) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR | Yesavg 7.7¢ | $57.89 | $127.48 | +$69.59 | 59% 1008-698 (1706) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.8¢ | $31.09 | $49.08 | +$17.99 | 59% 847-591 (1438) |
Invested
$8,654.54
Value
$8.7K
PnL
+$75.01
Record
65%
2335-1260 (3595)
Invested
$1,667.09
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$98.4
Record
51%
323-306 (629)
Invested
$618.21
Value
$619.49
PnL
+$1.27
Record
59%
2150-1512 (3662)
Invested
$300
Value
$275
PnL
-$25
Record
34%
577-1125 (1702)
Invested
$57.89
Value
$127.48
PnL
+$69.59
Record
59%
1008-698 (1706)
Invested
$31.09
Value
$49.08
PnL
+$17.99
Record
59%
847-591 (1438)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.