Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $9K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$9.3K
$49.79
94.8¢ → 97.8¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 74%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $4.7K | $4.7K | -$11.5 | 65% 2367-1272 (3639) |
SS ssddssd | Noavg 87.4¢ | $1.8K | $2.0K | +$186.99 | 52% 328-308 (636) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 97¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | +$21.5 | 59% 2174-1532 (3706) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $934.95 | $835.71 | -$113.03 | 60% 1038-705 (1743) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.1¢ | $53.95 | $15.94 | -$34.17 | 59% 860-598 (1458) |
Invested
$4,740.16
Value
$4.7K
PnL
-$11.5
Record
65%
2367-1272 (3639)
Invested
$1,771.82
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$186.99
Record
52%
328-308 (636)
Invested
$1,710.4
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$21.5
Record
59%
2174-1532 (3706)
Invested
$934.95
Value
$835.71
PnL
-$113.03
Record
60%
1038-705 (1743)
Invested
$53.95
Value
$15.94
PnL
-$34.17
Record
59%
860-598 (1458)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.