Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on October 29?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$5.9K
-$21.3
93.1¢ → 95.7¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 93.1¢ | $4.3K | $4.3K | +$81.41 | 65% 2335-1260 (3595) |
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $2.2K | $1.1K | +$0.89 | 59% 2150-1512 (3662) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 94¢ | $515.56 | $407.26 | -$89.98 | 59% 1008-698 (1706) |
SS ssddssd<$100 | Noavg 92.8¢ | $56.45 | $46.84 | -$9.61 | 51% 323-306 (629) |
GO gobblewobble<$100 | Noavg 93.5¢ | $22.76 | $18.75 | -$4.02 | 59% 847-591 (1438) |
Invested
$4,259.89
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$81.41
Record
65%
2335-1260 (3595)
Invested
$2,185.18
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$0.89
Record
59%
2150-1512 (3662)
Invested
$515.56
Value
$407.26
PnL
-$89.98
Record
59%
1008-698 (1706)
Invested
$56.45
Value
$46.84
PnL
-$9.61
Record
51%
323-306 (629)
Invested
$22.76
Value
$18.75
PnL
-$4.02
Record
59%
847-591 (1438)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.