Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 2?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 98¢ · $16K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$16.4K
$231.73
92.5¢ → 98¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $9.4K | $10.0K | +$568.39 | 66% 2457-1291 (3748) |
EA easypredict | Noavg 88.6¢ | $3.4K | $3.8K | +$359.91 | 56% 270-208 (478) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 98.2¢ | $3.0K | $2.6K | -$372.37 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
SS ssddssdCTR | Yesavg 18.9¢ | $361.43 | $30.51 | -$324.24 | 52% 338-316 (654) |
GO gobblewobble<$100 | Noavg 98¢ | $24.03 | $24.03 | +$0.04 | 59% 877-611 (1488) |
Invested
$9,425.49
Value
$10.0K
PnL
+$568.39
Record
66%
2457-1291 (3748)
Invested
$3,396.74
Value
$3.8K
PnL
+$359.91
Record
56%
270-208 (478)
Invested
$3,030.59
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$372.37
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$361.43
Value
$30.51
PnL
-$324.24
Record
52%
338-316 (654)
Invested
$24.03
Value
$24.03
PnL
+$0.04
Record
59%
877-611 (1488)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.