Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 30?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 69¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
-$44.85
73.4¢ → 68.5¢
-7% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 73¢ | $384.34 | $395.05 | +$10.71 | 59% 2150-1512 (3662) |
SS ssddssd | Noavg 74¢ | $296 | $272 | -$24 | 51% 323-306 (629) |
EA easypredictCTR | Yesavg 28.1¢ | $228.66 | $203.5 | -$25.16 | 57% 265-201 (466) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100 | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $331.26 | $200.27 | +$36.1 | 59% 1008-698 (1706) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 28.5¢ | $91.9 | $106.48 | +$29.7 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 64¢ | $89.59 | $93.79 | +$6.4 | |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30.1¢ | $29.17 | $22.77 | -$6.4 | 59% 847-591 (1438) |
Invested
$384.34
Value
$395.05
PnL
+$10.71
Record
59%
2150-1512 (3662)
Invested
$296
Value
$272
PnL
-$24
Record
51%
323-306 (629)
Invested
$228.66
Value
$203.5
PnL
-$25.16
Record
57%
265-201 (466)
Invested
$331.26
Value
$200.27
PnL
+$36.1
Record
59%
1008-698 (1706)
Both legs:
Invested
$29.17
Value
$22.77
PnL
-$6.4
Record
59%
847-591 (1438)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.