Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 1?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 74¢ · $766 held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$766.24
-$19.47
82.8¢ → 74¢
-11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 74%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100 | Yesavg 20.9¢ | $432 | $437.3 | -$46.75 | 59% 1025-703 (1728) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 20.9¢ | $230.99 | $287.3 | -$48 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 83¢ | $207.5 | $150 | +$1.25 | |
EA easypredict | Noavg 82.7¢ | $175.23 | $175.99 | +$0.76 | 57% 265-202 (467) |
TO Tokor | Noavg 83¢ | $157.7 | $140.6 | -$17.1 | 63% 756-438 (1194) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Yesavg 32.6¢ | $15.48 | $12.35 | -$3.13 | 59% 853-597 (1450) |
Invested
$432
Value
$437.3
PnL
-$46.75
Record
59%
1025-703 (1728)
Both legs:
Invested
$175.23
Value
$175.99
PnL
+$0.76
Record
57%
265-202 (467)
Invested
$157.7
Value
$140.6
PnL
-$17.1
Record
63%
756-438 (1194)
Invested
$15.48
Value
$12.35
PnL
-$3.13
Record
59%
853-597 (1450)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
74.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.