Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on October 31?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 67¢ · $751 held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$750.95
$25.07
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SS ssddssd | Noavg 71¢ | $355 | $330 | -$25 | 51% 323-306 (629) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Yesavg 26.4¢ | $269.97 | $301.11 | +$31.14 | 65% 2335-1260 (3595) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $55.95 | $69.79 | +$13.83 | 59% 1008-698 (1706) |
TO TokorCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $19.33 | $26.58 | +$7.25 | 64% 749-428 (1177) |
EA easypredictCTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.4¢ | $16.21 | $13.54 | -$2.67 | 57% 265-201 (466) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $8.75 | $9.93 | +$0.51 | 59% 847-591 (1438) |
Invested
$355
Value
$330
PnL
-$25
Record
51%
323-306 (629)
Invested
$269.97
Value
$301.11
PnL
+$31.14
Record
65%
2335-1260 (3595)
Invested
$55.95
Value
$69.79
PnL
+$13.83
Record
59%
1008-698 (1706)
Invested
$19.33
Value
$26.58
PnL
+$7.25
Record
64%
749-428 (1177)
Invested
$16.21
Value
$13.54
PnL
-$2.67
Record
57%
265-201 (466)
Invested
$8.75
Value
$9.93
PnL
+$0.51
Record
59%
847-591 (1438)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.