Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 3?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 83¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$4.1K
$-1.7K
81.8¢ → 82.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Yesavg 18.2¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$66.87 | 66% 2460-1291 (3751) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Noavg 82.9¢ | $2.9K | $1.5K | $-1.2K | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
SS ssddssd | Noavg 79.5¢ | $1.4K | $782 | -$570 | 52% 338-316 (654) |
0X 0xDB5<$100 | Noavg 82¢ | $90.2 | $90.75 | +$0.55 | 59% 2239-1571 (3810) |
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.4¢ | $33.77 | $88.94 | +$55.17 | 54% 394-334 (728) |
Invested
$1,692.62
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$66.87
Record
66%
2460-1291 (3751)
Invested
$2,876.64
Value
$1.5K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$1,352
Value
$782
PnL
-$570
Record
52%
338-316 (654)
Invested
$90.2
Value
$90.75
PnL
+$0.55
Record
59%
2239-1571 (3810)
Invested
$33.77
Value
$88.94
PnL
+$55.17
Record
54%
394-334 (728)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.