Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on October 31?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 85¢ · $6K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$5.9K
$-1.1K
63¢ → 84.5¢
+34% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xDB5 | Noavg 81.6¢ | $1.6K | $1.7K | +$93.7 | 59% 2174-1532 (3706) |
SS ssddssd | Noavg 65.1¢ | $1.6K | $1.5K | -$50 | 52% 328-308 (636) |
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR | Yesavg 49.8¢ | $2.0K | $931.6 | $-1.1K | 54% 386-329 (715) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Yesavg 19.3¢ | $775.7 | $782.42 | +$6.72 | 65% 2367-1272 (3639) |
GO gobblewobble | Noavg 25.9¢ | $285.32 | $693.92 | +$23.12 | 59% 860-598 (1458) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR | Yesavg 48.2¢ | $384.33 | $293.85 | -$87.67 | 60% 1038-705 (1743) |
Invested
$1,566.27
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$93.7
Record
59%
2174-1532 (3706)
Invested
$1,561.99
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$50
Record
52%
328-308 (636)
Invested
$2,015.96
Value
$931.6
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
54%
386-329 (715)
Invested
$775.7
Value
$782.42
PnL
+$6.72
Record
65%
2367-1272 (3639)
Invested
$285.32
Value
$693.92
PnL
+$23.12
Record
59%
860-598 (1458)
Invested
$384.33
Value
$293.85
PnL
-$87.67
Record
60%
1038-705 (1743)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.