Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (85%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 1?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 16¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 1

Yes16¢No84¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

-$664.44

Smart Money Entry

40.6¢ → 15.5¢

-62% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes16%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares3,593

Combined PnL+$258.85

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares6,569

Combined PnL-$923.29

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SS ssddssd	Noavg 76.2¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	-$4.67	52% 328-308 (636)
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR	Yesavg 37.7¢	$2.0K	$1.3K	-$722.51	54% 386-329 (715)
GO gobblewobble	Noavg 52.6¢	$592.27	$855.78	+$263.52	59% 860-598 (1458)
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR	Yesavg 51.9¢	$514.73	$313.95	-$200.78	60% 1039-705 (1744)

ssddssd

Invested

$1,879.58

Value

$1.9K

PnL

-$4.67

Record

52%

328-308 (636)

kingofcoinflipsCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,985.02

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$722.51

Record

54%

386-329 (715)

gobblewobble

Invested

$592.27

Value

$855.78

PnL

+$263.52

Record

59%

860-598 (1458)

0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR

Yes

Invested

$514.73

Value

$313.95

PnL

-$200.78

Record

60%

1039-705 (1744)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 85%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.5%

15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$472.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

572.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.