Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on November 2?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 90¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$4.1K
$-2.3K
91¢ → 89.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KI kingofcoinflips | Noavg 91¢ | $4.5K | $2.5K | $-2.0K | 54% 392-332 (724) |
SS ssddssd | Noavg 91¢ | $1.0K | $983.7 | -$16.49 | 52% 332-309 (641) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR | Yesavg 51.3¢ | $653.4 | $397 | -$230.3 | 59% 1058-727 (1785) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Yesavg 18.5¢ | $237.92 | $135.24 | -$102.68 | 65% 2415-1283 (3698) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.7¢ | $5.43 | $22.84 | +$17.4 | 59% 871-604 (1475) |
Invested
$4,467.55
Value
$2.5K
PnL
$-2.0K
Record
54%
392-332 (724)
Invested
$1,000.19
Value
$983.7
PnL
-$16.49
Record
52%
332-309 (641)
Invested
$653.4
Value
$397
PnL
-$230.3
Record
59%
1058-727 (1785)
Invested
$237.92
Value
$135.24
PnL
-$102.68
Record
65%
2415-1283 (3698)
Invested
$5.43
Value
$22.84
PnL
+$17.4
Record
59%
871-604 (1475)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.