Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 2?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 89¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$7.2K
$10.22
80¢ → 88.6¢
+11% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 73.1¢ | $3.5K | $3.5K | +$1.6K | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
MA Marioy | Yesavg 88.9¢ | $2.7K | $2.7K | -$11.41 | 81% 250-58 (308) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Noavg 32.4¢ | $2.4K | $761.86 | $-1.6K | 66% 2457-1291 (3748) |
19 196874353278CTR | Noavg 11¢ | $267.85 | $267.85 | +$15.83 | 45% 211-263 (474) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Noavg 20.3¢ | $15.6 | $8.44 | -$6.66 | 59% 877-611 (1488) |
Invested
$3,480.68
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$1.6K
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$2,666.41
Value
$2.7K
PnL
-$11.41
Record
81%
250-58 (308)
Invested
$2,350.83
Value
$761.86
PnL
$-1.6K
Record
66%
2457-1291 (3748)
Invested
$267.85
Value
$267.85
PnL
+$15.83
Record
45%
211-263 (474)
Invested
$15.6
Value
$8.44
PnL
-$6.66
Record
59%
877-611 (1488)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.