Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 31?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 99¢ · $23K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$23.4K
$338.49
97.1¢ → 98.7¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 96.8¢ | $18.0K | $17.7K | +$295.98 | 65% 2354-1269 (3623) |
MA Marioy | Yesavg 98¢ | $4.9K | $4.9K | +$42.5 | 81% 237-56 (293) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100 | Yesavg 97.1¢ | $353.18 | $579.53 | -$21.63 | 59% 1025-703 (1728) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 3.5¢ | $101.66 | $333.03 | -$22 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 97.1¢ | $242.75 | $246.5 | +$0.38 | |
0X 0xDB5 | Yesavg 98.6¢ | $256.36 | $256.49 | +$0.13 | 59% 2166-1524 (3690) |
GO gobblewobbleCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.4¢ | $0.63 | $2.12 | -$0.12 | 59% 853-597 (1450) |
Invested
$17,952.11
Value
$17.7K
PnL
+$295.98
Record
65%
2354-1269 (3623)
Invested
$4,900
Value
$4.9K
PnL
+$42.5
Record
81%
237-56 (293)
Invested
$353.18
Value
$579.53
PnL
-$21.63
Record
59%
1025-703 (1728)
Both legs:
Invested
$256.36
Value
$256.49
PnL
+$0.13
Record
59%
2166-1524 (3690)
Invested
$0.63
Value
$2.12
PnL
-$0.12
Record
59%
853-597 (1450)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.