Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on October 30?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (71%) · Yes at 67¢ · $30K held · ends Oct 30
🔬
Research candidate
Yes
7
Yes 71%
$30.0K
$-5.4K
94.6¢ → 66.9¢
-29% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateYes at 67%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 93.8¢ | $28.3K | $21.3K | $-4.8K | 65% 2367-1272 (3639) |
MA Marioy | Yesavg 98.5¢ | $5.1K | $4.6K | -$463.02 | 81% 240-57 (297) |
0X 0xDB5 | Yesavg 93.8¢ | $4.1K | $2.2K | -$1.2 | 59% 2174-1532 (3706) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 98.1¢ | $1.7K | $1.6K | -$79.58 | 60% 1038-705 (1743) |
GO gobblewobble | Yesavg 85.9¢ | $258.57 | $205.07 | -$53.5 | 59% 860-598 (1458) |
SS ssddssdCTR | Noavg 7.2¢ | $129.03 | $89.22 | -$39.81 | 52% 328-308 (636) |
AO aosdijfCTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $45.33 | $44.38 | -$0.95 | 9% 45-447 (492) |
Invested
$28,287.13
Value
$21.3K
PnL
$-4.8K
Record
65%
2367-1272 (3639)
Invested
$5,083.7
Value
$4.6K
PnL
-$463.02
Record
81%
240-57 (297)
Invested
$4,061.49
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$1.2
Record
59%
2174-1532 (3706)
Invested
$1,668.87
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$79.58
Record
60%
1038-705 (1743)
Invested
$258.57
Value
$205.07
PnL
-$53.5
Record
59%
860-598 (1458)
Invested
$129.03
Value
$89.22
PnL
-$39.81
Record
52%
328-308 (636)
Invested
$45.33
Value
$44.38
PnL
-$0.95
Record
9%
45-447 (492)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
66.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.5¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.