Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 1?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 78¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
1 arb excluded
$7.4K
$221.23
68.1¢ → 78.4¢
+15% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 71.3¢ | $3.4K | $3.1K | +$109.05 | 59% 1058-727 (1785) |
19 196874353278 | Yesavg 64.5¢ | $2.5K | $2.9K | +$385.01 | 43% 174-231 (405) |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Noavg 30.4¢ | $12.3K | $1.3K | -$272.83 | 65% 2415-1283 (3698) |
GO gobblewobbleARB<$100 | Yesavg 72.9¢ | $322.39 | $131.52 | +$23.66 | 59% 871-604 (1475) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 16.9¢ | $43.63 | $65.96 | +$22.32 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 72.9¢ | $64.22 | $65.56 | +$1.33 | |
0X 0xDB5<$100 | Yesavg 71.6¢ | $1.35 | $1.35 | +$0 | 59% 2201-1553 (3754) |
Invested
$3,404.69
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$109.05
Record
59%
1058-727 (1785)
Invested
$2,497.1
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$385.01
Record
43%
174-231 (405)
Invested
$12,311.42
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$272.83
Record
65%
2415-1283 (3698)
Invested
$322.39
Value
$131.52
PnL
+$23.66
Record
59%
871-604 (1475)
Both legs:
Invested
$1.35
Value
$1.35
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
2201-1553 (3754)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.