Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 9?

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 78¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 9

Yes78¢No22¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$393.16

Smart Money Entry

77.3¢ → 78¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes78%

No22%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares4,804

Combined PnL-$481.92

No3 traders

Total Value$161.81

Total Shares440

Combined PnL+$88.76

Yes — 63%No — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
19 196874353278	Yesavg 73.4¢	$1.7K	$1.5K	-$14.32	40% 476-716 (1192)
MA Marioy	Yesavg 83.4¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$396.09	84% 341-66 (407)
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100	Noavg 25.1¢	$1.7K	$1.2K	+$493.04	69% 5074-2256 (7330)
└ No leg	Noavg 25.1¢	$878.86	$771.65	+$520.43
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 95.3¢	$478.11	$391.24	-$27.39
SS ssddssd	Yesavg 72.1¢	$648.99	$577.34	-$71.65	53% 385-340 (725)
balthazarCTR<$100	Noavg 13.5¢	$33.85	$91	+$57.15	30% 35305-83677 (118982)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 19.8¢	$56.8	$62.02	+$29.62	32% 21174-45399 (66573)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100	Noavg 24.7¢	$6.8	$8.79	+$1.99	51% 14663-13985 (28648)
E4 e46m3<$100	Yes	$5.74	$5.74	+$0.42	62% 35877-22304 (58181)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Yesavg 83.6¢	$4.18	$3.9	-$0.28	73% 13539-5008 (18547)

196874353278

Yes

Invested

$1,706.29

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$14.32

Record

40%

476-716 (1192)

Marioy

Yes

Invested

$1,668.09

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$396.09

Record

84%

341-66 (407)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452ARB<$100

Invested

$1,703.81

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$493.04

Record

69%

5074-2256 (7330)

Both legs:

No$878.8625.1¢+$520.43

Yes$478.1195.3¢-$27.39

ssddssd

Yes

Invested

$648.99

Value

$577.34

PnL

-$71.65

Record

53%

385-340 (725)

balthazarCTR<$100

Invested

$33.85

Value

$91

PnL

+$57.15

Record

30%

35305-83677 (118982)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$56.8

Value

$62.02

PnL

+$29.62

Record

32%

21174-45399 (66573)

cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100

Invested

$6.8

Value

$8.79

PnL

+$1.99

Record

51%

14663-13985 (28648)

e46m3<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.74

Value

$5.74

PnL

+$0.42

Record

62%

35877-22304 (58181)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.18

Value

$3.9

PnL

-$0.28

Record

73%

13539-5008 (18547)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 78%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 8 top traders (63%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.1%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.82

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.