Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 10?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 36¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$4.3K
$487.93
29.5¢ → 35.7¢
+21% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Noavg 29.5¢ | $2.4K | $2.6K | +$576.07 | 69% 5074-2256 (7330) |
MA Marioy | Yesavg 73.2¢ | $1.5K | $1.3K | -$46.46 | 84% 341-66 (407) |
SS ssddssd | Yesavg 70¢ | $350 | $304.75 | -$45.25 | 53% 385-340 (725) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 30.6¢ | $29.31 | $18.62 | +$4.61 | 32% 21174-45399 (66573) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Noavg 21.7¢ | $1.09 | $4.8 | -$0.91 | 51% 14663-13985 (28648) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Yesavg 70.6¢ | $3.53 | $3.4 | -$0.13 | 73% 13539-5008 (18547) |
Invested
$2,428.36
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$576.07
Record
69%
5074-2256 (7330)
Invested
$1,463.21
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$46.46
Record
84%
341-66 (407)
Invested
$350
Value
$304.75
PnL
-$45.25
Record
53%
385-340 (725)
Invested
$29.31
Value
$18.62
PnL
+$4.61
Record
32%
21174-45399 (66573)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$1.09
Value
$4.8
PnL
-$0.91
Record
51%
14663-13985 (28648)
Invested
$3.53
Value
$3.4
PnL
-$0.13
Record
73%
13539-5008 (18547)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
35.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.