Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 11?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 44¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 50%
$1.2K
$109.89
30.9¢ → 44.1¢
+43% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 44%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Noavg 30.9¢ | $13.4 | $907.75 | +$159.77 | 69% 5074-2256 (7330) |
SS ssddssd | Yesavg 71.5¢ | $286.2 | $233 | -$53.2 | 53% 385-340 (725) |
19 196874353278<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $40 | $23.42 | +$3.42 | 40% 476-714 (1190) |
 cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100 | Noavg 22.4¢ | $0.71 | $0.6 | -$0.1 | 51% 14663-13985 (28648) |
Invested
$13.4
Value
$907.75
PnL
+$159.77
Record
69%
5074-2256 (7330)
Invested
$286.2
Value
$233
PnL
-$53.2
Record
53%
385-340 (725)
Invested
$40
Value
$23.42
PnL
+$3.42
Record
40%
476-714 (1190)
cryingbabydicer87CTR<$100Invested
$0.71
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$0.1
Record
51%
14663-13985 (28648)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.