Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 3?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 94¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$13.1K
$213.86
90.1¢ → 93.5¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA Marioy | Yesavg 93.8¢ | $9.4K | $9.4K | -$34.67 | 81% 250-58 (308) |
EA easypredict | Yesavg 74¢ | $1.7K | $2.1K | +$452.78 | 56% 270-208 (478) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100 | Yesavg 92.1¢ | $1.0K | $975.96 | +$17.51 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 92.1¢ | $759.12 | $770.87 | +$11.75 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 6.5¢ | $211.17 | $205.09 | +$5.76 | |
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452CTR | Noavg 7.7¢ | $22.8K | $631.43 | -$204.24 | 66% 2457-1291 (3748) |
Invested
$9,379.68
Value
$9.4K
PnL
-$34.67
Record
81%
250-58 (308)
Invested
$1,658.57
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$452.78
Record
56%
270-208 (478)
Invested
$1,018.95
Value
$975.96
PnL
+$17.51
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Both legs:
Invested
$22,769.05
Value
$631.43
PnL
-$204.24
Record
66%
2457-1291 (3748)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.