Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 1?
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 97¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$13.3K
-$174.34
95.8¢ → 96.6¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 95.9¢ | $12.6K | $12.5K | -$124.98 | 65% 2384-1276 (3660) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394ARB<$100 | Yesavg 94.1¢ | $336.44 | $360.44 | +$24 | 60% 1043-709 (1752) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 94.1¢ | $280.08 | $282.68 | +$1.41 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 3.9¢ | $60.14 | $77.76 | +$22.59 | |
EA easypredictCTR | Noavg 8.1¢ | $199.57 | $147.86 | -$51.71 | 56% 265-205 (470) |
SS ssddssdCTR | Noavg 5.2¢ | $146.2 | $141.4 | -$4.8 | 52% 328-308 (636) |
GO gobblewobble | Yesavg 88.4¢ | $95.78 | $102.92 | +$7.14 | 59% 861-600 (1461) |
Invested
$12,627.84
Value
$12.5K
PnL
-$124.98
Record
65%
2384-1276 (3660)
Invested
$336.44
Value
$360.44
PnL
+$24
Record
60%
1043-709 (1752)
Both legs:
Invested
$199.57
Value
$147.86
PnL
-$51.71
Record
56%
265-205 (470)
Invested
$146.2
Value
$141.4
PnL
-$4.8
Record
52%
328-308 (636)
Invested
$95.78
Value
$102.92
PnL
+$7.14
Record
59%
861-600 (1461)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.