Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 2?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 96¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$13.1K
$307.68
96.2¢ → 96.3¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 97.2¢ | $9.9K | $9.9K | +$21.2 | 65% 2423-1286 (3709) |
MA Marioy | Yesavg 93¢ | $2.8K | $2.9K | +$78 | 81% 243-58 (301) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR | Noavg 2.5¢ | $127.56 | $335.32 | +$207.76 | 59% 1058-727 (1785) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Noavg 3.4¢ | $11.99 | $13.15 | +$0.97 | 43% 181-238 (419) |
EA easypredictCTR<$100 | Noavg 11.5¢ | $0.58 | $0.33 | -$0.25 | 57% 269-207 (476) |
Invested
$9,887.02
Value
$9.9K
PnL
+$21.2
Record
65%
2423-1286 (3709)
Invested
$2,790
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$78
Record
81%
243-58 (301)
Invested
$127.56
Value
$335.32
PnL
+$207.76
Record
59%
1058-727 (1785)
Invested
$11.99
Value
$13.15
PnL
+$0.97
Record
43%
181-238 (419)
Invested
$0.58
Value
$0.33
PnL
-$0.25
Record
57%
269-207 (476)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.