Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on October 31?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 82¢ · $17K held · ends Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$16.7K
-$567.98
95.5¢ → 82.5¢
-14% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 94.9¢ | $13.0K | $11.7K | $-1.3K | 65% 2367-1272 (3639) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 99.1¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$41 | 60% 1038-705 (1743) |
0X 0xDB5 | Yesavg 97.2¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$26.47 | 59% 2174-1532 (3706) |
SS ssddssdCTR | Noavg 7.2¢ | $549.48 | $1.4K | +$850.4 | 52% 328-308 (636) |
EA easypredictCTR | Noavg 8.9¢ | $169.99 | $177.63 | +$7.64 | 57% 265-203 (468) |
GO gobblewobble | Yesavg 91.2¢ | $163.16 | $148.72 | -$14.45 | 59% 860-598 (1458) |
YO YouSayUpISayDownCTR<$100 | Noavg 4.1¢ | $2.21 | $2.21 | +$0 | 54% 3698-3213 (6911) |
Invested
$13,013.09
Value
$11.7K
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
65%
2367-1272 (3639)
Invested
$1,807.31
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$41
Record
60%
1038-705 (1743)
Invested
$1,576.48
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$26.47
Record
59%
2174-1532 (3706)
Invested
$549.48
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$850.4
Record
52%
328-308 (636)
Invested
$169.99
Value
$177.63
PnL
+$7.64
Record
57%
265-203 (468)
Invested
$163.16
Value
$148.72
PnL
-$14.45
Record
59%
860-598 (1458)
Invested
$2.21
Value
$2.21
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
3698-3213 (6911)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.