Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 9?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 90¢ · $15K held · ends Nov 9

Yes90¢No10¢Ends Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$14.8K

Combined PnL

$85.58

Smart Money Entry

94.1¢ → 89.6¢

-5% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 90%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$13.9K

Total Shares15,407

Combined PnL-$410.4

No1 trader

Total Value$920.15

Total Shares9,635

Combined PnL+$495.98

Yes — 89%No — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452	Yesavg 94.3¢	$9.1K	$8.2K	-$489.38	69% 5041-2245 (7286)
MA Marioy	Yesavg 95¢	$18.68	$4.5K	-$227.5	84% 341-66 (407)
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR	Noavg 4.3¢	$190.33	$920.15	+$495.98	54% 742-629 (1371)
SS ssddssd	Yesavg 88¢	$9.68	$371.74	+$18.07	53% 385-340 (725)
19 196874353278	Yesavg 89¢	$254.8	$228.9	+$272.3	40% 476-714 (1190)
cryingbabydicer87	Yesavg 96.2¢	$227.7	$222.99	-$4.71	51% 14653-13982 (28635)
TO Tokor	Yesavg 77.5¢	$162.75	$188.16	+$25.41	63% 937-562 (1499)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Yesavg 92.1¢	$90.95	$89.58	-$1.36	32% 21156-45383 (66539)
Haradwaith	Yesavg 97.1¢	$457.75	$64.59	-$3.23	57% 41426-31209 (72635)

0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452

Yes

Invested

$9,135.98

Value

$8.2K

PnL

-$489.38

Record

69%

5041-2245 (7286)

Marioy

Yes

Invested

$18.68

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$227.5

Record

84%

341-66 (407)

kingofcoinflipsCTR

Invested

$190.33

Value

$920.15

PnL

+$495.98

Record

54%

742-629 (1371)

ssddssd

Yes

Invested

$9.68

Value

$371.74

PnL

+$18.07

Record

53%

385-340 (725)

196874353278

Yes

Invested

$254.8

Value

$228.9

PnL

+$272.3

Record

40%

476-714 (1190)

cryingbabydicer87

Yes

Invested

$227.7

Value

$222.99

PnL

-$4.71

Record

51%

14653-13982 (28635)

Tokor

Yes

Invested

$162.75

Value

$188.16

PnL

+$25.41

Record

63%

937-562 (1499)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Yes

Invested

$90.95

Value

$89.58

PnL

-$1.36

Record

32%

21156-45383 (66539)

Haradwaith

Yes

Invested

$457.75

Value

$64.59

PnL

-$3.23

Record

57%

41426-31209 (72635)

Research grade

Research candidateYes at 90%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.2%

89.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

109.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.