Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 11?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 83¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$3.1K
$47.69
91.7¢ → 83.3¢
-9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 97.9¢ | $2.0K | $1.8K | +$45.12 | 69% 5041-2245 (7286) |
SS ssddssd | Yesavg 83.9¢ | $1.0K | $999 | -$8.2 | 53% 385-340 (725) |
KI kingofcoinflips | Yesavg 83.9¢ | $164.66 | $180.7 | +$16.04 | 54% 741-625 (1366) |
E4 e46m3<$100 | Yesavg 83.1¢ | $39.08 | $43.29 | +$3.79 | 62% 35853-22264 (58117) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Yesavg 91¢ | $46.06 | $41.29 | -$4.77 | 51% 14653-13982 (28635) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 23.7¢ | $16.66 | $12.37 | -$4.29 | 32% 21156-45383 (66539) |
Invested
$1,968.29
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$45.12
Record
69%
5041-2245 (7286)
Invested
$1,007.2
Value
$999
PnL
-$8.2
Record
53%
385-340 (725)
Invested
$164.66
Value
$180.7
PnL
+$16.04
Record
54%
741-625 (1366)
Invested
$39.08
Value
$43.29
PnL
+$3.79
Record
62%
35853-22264 (58117)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$46.06
Value
$41.29
PnL
-$4.77
Record
51%
14653-13982 (28635)
Invested
$16.66
Value
$12.37
PnL
-$4.29
Record
32%
21156-45383 (66539)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.