Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 10?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 87¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$3.8K
$430.58
91.9¢ → 86.7¢
-6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Mature
19h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 95.6¢ | $2.3K | $2.1K | +$386.27 | 69% 5041-2245 (7286) |
SS ssddssd | Yesavg 86.7¢ | $589.8 | $1.4K | +$3.05 | 53% 385-340 (725) |
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR | Noavg 6.5¢ | $9.18 | $120.7 | +$1.01 | 54% 742-629 (1371) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 90.3¢ | $64.07 | $59.7 | -$4.38 | 32% 21156-45383 (66539) |
 cryingbabydicer87<$100 | Yesavg 95.2¢ | $45.38 | $41.12 | -$4.25 | 51% 14653-13982 (28635) |
19 196874353278<$100 | Yesavg 79.2¢ | $34.54 | $26.44 | +$48.88 | 40% 476-714 (1190) |
Invested
$2,330.63
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$386.27
Record
69%
5041-2245 (7286)
Invested
$589.8
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$3.05
Record
53%
385-340 (725)
Invested
$9.18
Value
$120.7
PnL
+$1.01
Record
54%
742-629 (1371)
Invested
$64.07
Value
$59.7
PnL
-$4.38
Record
32%
21156-45383 (66539)
cryingbabydicer87<$100Invested
$45.38
Value
$41.12
PnL
-$4.25
Record
51%
14653-13982 (28635)
Invested
$34.54
Value
$26.44
PnL
+$48.88
Record
40%
476-714 (1190)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.