Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 2?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 100¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 2
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$13.1K
$176.49
97.1¢ → 99.8¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 97¢ | $12.0K | $12.3K | +$321.82 | 66% 2457-1291 (3748) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 98.8¢ | $634.86 | $543.75 | -$92.95 | 59% 1064-740 (1804) |
KI kingofcoinflips | Yesavg 94.4¢ | $137.05 | $144.6 | +$7.69 | 54% 394-334 (728) |
 Facaie<$100 | Yesavg 99.6¢ | $69.71 | $69.71 | +$0 | 93% 1311-105 (1416) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Noavg 2.6¢ | $69.44 | $26.75 | -$60.07 | 45% 212-263 (475) |
Invested
$12,013.45
Value
$12.3K
PnL
+$321.82
Record
66%
2457-1291 (3748)
Invested
$634.86
Value
$543.75
PnL
-$92.95
Record
59%
1064-740 (1804)
Invested
$137.05
Value
$144.6
PnL
+$7.69
Record
54%
394-334 (728)
Facaie<$100Invested
$69.71
Value
$69.71
PnL
+$0
Record
93%
1311-105 (1416)
Invested
$69.44
Value
$26.75
PnL
-$60.07
Record
45%
212-263 (475)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.