Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 31?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 95¢ · $19K held · ends Oct 31
🔬
Research candidate
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$19.3K
-$711.08
98¢ → 94.7¢
-3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateYes at 95%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 98¢ | $16.0K | $15.1K | -$593.41 | 65% 2368-1272 (3640) |
0X 0xDB5 | Yesavg 97.8¢ | $3.2K | $2.9K | -$97.82 | 59% 2174-1533 (3707) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 99.6¢ | $765.71 | $724.52 | -$6.55 | 60% 1039-705 (1744) |
 Facaie | Yesavg 97.5¢ | $487.5 | $474.25 | -$13.25 | 92% 1223-102 (1325) |
GO gobblewobble<$100 | Yesavg 95.3¢ | $65.54 | $65.24 | -$0.3 | 59% 860-598 (1458) |
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.4¢ | $12.12 | $26.01 | +$0.25 | 54% 386-329 (715) |
Invested
$15,974.31
Value
$15.1K
PnL
-$593.41
Record
65%
2368-1272 (3640)
Invested
$3,195.47
Value
$2.9K
PnL
-$97.82
Record
59%
2174-1533 (3707)
Invested
$765.71
Value
$724.52
PnL
-$6.55
Record
60%
1039-705 (1744)
FacaieInvested
$487.5
Value
$474.25
PnL
-$13.25
Record
92%
1223-102 (1325)
Invested
$65.54
Value
$65.24
PnL
-$0.3
Record
59%
860-598 (1458)
Invested
$12.12
Value
$26.01
PnL
+$0.25
Record
54%
386-329 (715)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.