Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on November 1?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 98¢ · $14K held · ends Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 40%
$13.8K
$36.95
98.1¢ → 98.3¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 98.1¢ | $13.5K | $13.5K | +$6.47 | 65% 2415-1283 (3698) |
KI kingofcoinflipsCTR | Noavg 1.9¢ | $137.22 | $178.56 | +$41.34 | 54% 392-332 (724) |
GO gobblewobble<$100 | Yesavg 98.1¢ | $46.13 | $46.13 | +$0 | 59% 871-604 (1475) |
19 196874353278CTR<$100 | Noavg 2.1¢ | $49.43 | $41.59 | -$7.85 | 43% 174-229 (403) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394CTR<$100 | Noavg 2¢ | $44.46 | $41.45 | -$3.01 | 59% 1058-727 (1785) |
Invested
$13,458.36
Value
$13.5K
PnL
+$6.47
Record
65%
2415-1283 (3698)
Invested
$137.22
Value
$178.56
PnL
+$41.34
Record
54%
392-332 (724)
Invested
$46.13
Value
$46.13
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
871-604 (1475)
Invested
$49.43
Value
$41.59
PnL
-$7.85
Record
43%
174-229 (403)
Invested
$44.46
Value
$41.45
PnL
-$3.01
Record
59%
1058-727 (1785)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.