Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on October 30?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 96¢ · $36K held · ends Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$36.1K
$201.18
96.7¢ → 96.2¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x06dc51826bc524d9a83770e7de9dd7e005b0452 | Yesavg 96.4¢ | $30.5K | $30.8K | +$323.89 | 65% 2368-1272 (3640) |
0X 0xDB5 | Yesavg 98.3¢ | $4.4K | $3.2K | -$110.05 | 59% 2174-1533 (3707) |
 Facaie | Yesavg 97.9¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$5.1 | 92% 1223-102 (1325) |
0X 0xb6fef4c2c436ab8bbf07d017952e851dcf717394 | Yesavg 99.5¢ | $986.31 | $965.22 | -$7.71 | 60% 1039-705 (1744) |
AO aosdijfCTR<$100 | Noavg 2.5¢ | $3.58 | $3.72 | +$0.14 | 9% 45-447 (492) |
Invested
$30,480.03
Value
$30.8K
PnL
+$323.89
Record
65%
2368-1272 (3640)
Invested
$4,411.64
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$110.05
Record
59%
2174-1533 (3707)
FacaieInvested
$1,076.5
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$5.1
Record
92%
1223-102 (1325)
Invested
$986.31
Value
$965.22
PnL
-$7.71
Record
60%
1039-705 (1744)
Invested
$3.58
Value
$3.72
PnL
+$0.14
Record
9%
45-447 (492)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.