Will Wolfsberger AC win on 2026-11-06?

10 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (77%) · No at 93¢ · $96K held · ends Nov 6

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

🔬

Research candidate

Consensus Traders

No 77%

Total Value

$95.7K

Combined PnL

$25.67

Smart Money Entry

93.8¢ → 92.5¢

-1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 93%

Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$90.3K

Total Shares96,454

Combined PnL-$369.72

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares82,226

Combined PnL+$395.4

No — 77%Yes — 23%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
99 999585	Noavg 94¢	$85.0K	$79.5K	-$424.96	86% 75-12 (87)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Yesavg 6¢	$80.0K	$5.2K	+$399.91	53% 6292-5577 (11869)
NM NM-P	Noavg 92.7¢	$3.5K	$3.5K	+$4.71	64% 10069-5627 (15696)
GC GC-P	Noavg 92.7¢	$3.2K	$3.2K	+$29.97	64% 10093-5697 (15790)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 92.2¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$5.21	51% 26324-24949 (51273)
SE sentrio	Noavg 92.3¢	$660.64	$676.98	+$16.34	50% 26097-25756 (51853)
CA Cannae	Noavg 92¢	$641.53	$647.58	+$6.06	53% 16941-15068 (32009)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 93¢	$558	$555	-$3	51% 1985-1918 (3903)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 93.4¢	$310.95	$308.11	-$2.85	34% 19429-36974 (56403)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 6.2¢	$139.51	$135	-$4.51	50% 28611-28439 (57050)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Noavg 93.3¢	$88.14	$87.36	-$0.78	50% 21367-21638 (43005)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 93¢	$80.44	$80	-$0.43	51% 6444-6225 (12669)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$0.6	$0.6	-$0	58% 47061-33943 (81004)

999585

Invested

$85,000

Value

$79.5K

PnL

-$424.96

Record

86%

75-12 (87)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Yes

Invested

$79,965.88

Value

$5.2K

PnL

+$399.91

Record

53%

6292-5577 (11869)

NM-P

Invested

$3,512.36

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$4.71

Record

64%

10069-5627 (15696)

GC-P

Invested

$3,155.35

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$29.97

Record

64%

10093-5697 (15790)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,783.5

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$5.21

Record

51%

26324-24949 (51273)

sentrio

Invested

$660.64

Value

$676.98

PnL

+$16.34

Record

50%

26097-25756 (51853)

Cannae

Invested

$641.53

Value

$647.58

PnL

+$6.06

Record

53%

16941-15068 (32009)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$558

Value

$555

PnL

-$3

Record

51%

1985-1918 (3903)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$310.95

Value

$308.11

PnL

-$2.85

Record

34%

19429-36974 (56403)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$139.51

Value

$135

PnL

-$4.51

Record

50%

28611-28439 (57050)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Invested

$88.14

Value

$87.36

PnL

-$0.78

Record

50%

21367-21638 (43005)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$80.44

Value

$80

PnL

-$0.43

Record

51%

6444-6225 (12669)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

47061-33943 (81004)

Research grade

Research candidateNo at 93%

Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 13 top traders (77%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.