Will CS Independiente Rivadavia win on 2026-11-07?

7 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 61¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 7

Yes40¢No60¢Ended Sat, Nov 7, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

-$28.21

Smart Money Entry

88.4¢ → 60.5¢

-32% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes40%

No61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,449

Combined PnL+$320.57

No7 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,477

Combined PnL-$348.78

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 94.6¢	$9.0K	$6.9K	$-2.2K	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
└ No leg	Noavg 94.6¢	$7.4K	$4.7K	$-2.7K
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 29.8¢	$1.6K	$2.1K	+$514.99
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Noavg 84.3¢	$1.5K	$2.8K	+$1.3K	50% 29172-29037 (58209)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 3¢	$141.12	$1.9K	+$1.7K
└ No leg	Noavg 84.3¢	$1.3K	$960.38	-$378.53
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR	Yesavg 21.5¢	$424.9	$650.18	+$225.28	58% 3248-2345 (5593)
RN1	Noavg 83.1¢	$527.6	$438.86	-$88.74	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 96¢	$667.93	$436.45	-$231.47	50% 59994-58808 (118802)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100	Noavg 88.1¢	$253.11	$263.3	+$10.19	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
└ No leg	Noavg 88.1¢	$197.89	$135.86	-$62.04
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17.1¢	$55.22	$127.44	+$72.22
dips.CTR	Yesavg 31.4¢	$189.35	$220.23	+$39.71	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
AR ARocky33CTR	Yesavg 27.3¢	$128.32	$185.49	+$57.17	76% 4579-1422 (6001)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 72.5¢	$87	$72.6	-$14.4	64% 5377-2997 (8374)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 89.3¢	$58.34	$46.33	-$12.01	48% 5549-6067 (11616)
RO Rocky31CTR<$100	Yesavg 49.5¢	$14.85	$11.85	-$3	75% 1985-674 (2659)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 38.2¢	$10.33	$10.68	+$0.35	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Yesavg 34.1¢	$7.16	$8.3	+$1.13	47% 4175-4797 (8972)
VeryLucky888<$100	Noavg 60¢	$5.9	$5.94	+$0.05	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
rayvanmechelenCTR<$100	Yesavg 40.2¢	$4.06	$3.99	-$0.07	53% 2714-2387 (5101)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 95¢	$4.75	$3.03	-$1.73	33% 20011-40834 (60845)
PA pauleta23<$100	Noavg 84¢	$1.73	$1.25	-$0.48	65% 24597-12971 (37568)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$9,019.78

Value

$6.9K

PnL

$-2.2K

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

Both legs:

No$7,427.9794.6¢$-2.7K

Yes$1,591.8129.8¢+$514.99

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Invested

$1,480.03

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

50%

29172-29037 (58209)

Both legs:

Yes$141.123¢+$1.7K

No$1,338.9184.3¢-$378.53

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR

Yes

Invested

$424.9

Value

$650.18

PnL

+$225.28

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

RN1

Invested

$527.6

Value

$438.86

PnL

-$88.74

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

cigarettes

Invested

$667.93

Value

$436.45

PnL

-$231.47

Record

50%

59994-58808 (118802)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2ARB<$100

Invested

$253.11

Value

$263.3

PnL

+$10.19

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

Both legs:

No$197.8988.1¢-$62.04

Yes$55.2217.1¢+$72.22

dips.CTR

Yes

Invested

$189.35

Value

$220.23

PnL

+$39.71

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

ARocky33CTR

Yes

Invested

$128.32

Value

$185.49

PnL

+$57.17

Record

76%

4579-1422 (6001)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$87

Value

$72.6

PnL

-$14.4

Record

64%

5377-2997 (8374)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$58.34

Value

$46.33

PnL

-$12.01

Record

48%

5549-6067 (11616)

Rocky31CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.85

Value

$11.85

PnL

-$3

Record

75%

1985-674 (2659)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.33

Value

$10.68

PnL

+$0.35

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

shiifooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.16

Value

$8.3

PnL

+$1.13

Record

47%

4175-4797 (8972)

VeryLucky888<$100

Invested

$5.9

Value

$5.94

PnL

+$0.05

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

rayvanmechelenCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.06

Value

$3.99

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

2714-2387 (5101)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$4.75

Value

$3.03

PnL

-$1.73

Record

33%

20011-40834 (60845)

pauleta23<$100

Invested

$1.73

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$0.48

Record

65%

24597-12971 (37568)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 61%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 14 top traders (50%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.7%

60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$59.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

159.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.