Will Tunisia vs. Libya end in a draw?

12 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 55%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$787.21

Smart Money Entry

82.3¢ → 99.2¢

+21% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 22 top traders (55%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares3,032

Combined PnL-$80.77

Yes10 traders

Total Value$47.39

Total Shares2,348

Combined PnL-$706.44

No — 55%Yes — 45%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (20 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 20

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 72.1¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$74.38	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
SM smithagent	Noavg 95¢	$760	$736	-$24	43% 507-662 (1169)
SU suitcase6628	Noavg 95¢	$475	$460	-$15	63% 464-269 (733)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 90¢	$49.95	$51.06	+$1.11	39% 37-59 (96)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Noavg 66¢	$31.8	$36.93	+$5.13	50% 2262-2219 (4481)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 91.3¢	$31.95	$34.46	+$2.51	39% 3489-5413 (8902)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Noavg 76¢	$24.32	$29.44	+$5.12	8% 27-316 (343)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 33.8¢	$514.23	$23.55	-$490.68	36% 763-1361 (2124)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 62¢	$15.08	$22.37	+$7.29	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 79¢	$15.05	$17.52	+$2.48	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
alpheclabs2<$100	Noavg 58¢	$9.86	$15.64	+$5.78	46% 219-260 (479)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 28.8¢	$36.6	$10.16	-$26.44	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 21.7¢	$82.02	$5.85	-$76.17	35% 750-1386 (2136)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 64¢	$3.64	$5.24	+$1.59	47% 786-902 (1688)
LR lryyy<$100	Noavg 60¢	$3	$4.6	+$1.6	45% 595-734 (1329)
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100	Yesavg 40.2¢	$97.29	$3.75	-$93.54	27% 72-194 (266)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$7.61	$1.81	-$3.08	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$13.11	$0.6	-$12.51	34% 736-1405 (2141)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$1.99	$0.47	-$1.52	20% 47-184 (231)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 35¢	$7.9	$0.4	-$2.5	49% 1669-1706 (3375)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.4	$0.4	+$0	36% 326-587 (913)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.4	$0.4	+$0	56% 4863-3816 (8679)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,582.41

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$74.38

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

smithagent

Invested

$760

Value

$736

PnL

-$24

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

suitcase6628

Invested

$475

Value

$460

PnL

-$15

Record

63%

464-269 (733)

foooool<$100

Invested

$49.95

Value

$51.06

PnL

+$1.11

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Invested

$31.8

Value

$36.93

PnL

+$5.13

Record

50%

2262-2219 (4481)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$31.95

Value

$34.46

PnL

+$2.51

Record

39%

3489-5413 (8902)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Invested

$24.32

Value

$29.44

PnL

+$5.12

Record

27-316 (343)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$514.23

Value

$23.55

PnL

-$490.68

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$15.08

Value

$22.37

PnL

+$7.29

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$15.05

Value

$17.52

PnL

+$2.48

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

alpheclabs2<$100

Invested

$9.86

Value

$15.64

PnL

+$5.78

Record

46%

219-260 (479)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.6

Value

$10.16

PnL

-$26.44

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$82.02

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$76.17

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$3.64

Value

$5.24

PnL

+$1.59

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

lryyy<$100

Invested

Value

$4.6

PnL

+$1.6

Record

45%

595-734 (1329)

WagerWizardCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.29

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$93.54

Record

27%

72-194 (266)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.61

Value

$1.81

PnL

-$3.08

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.11

Value

$0.6

PnL

-$12.51

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.99

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$1.52

Record

20%

47-184 (231)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.9

Value

$0.4

PnL

-$2.5

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 22 top traders (55%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%18 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-25 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (20 on No) disagree here.

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 54% · 13

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 20

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.