Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (68%). 15 of 27 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Nigeria win on 2026-11-13?

15 of 27 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 33¢ · $9K held · ended Nov 13

Yes68¢No32¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.9K

Combined PnL

$3.4K

Smart Money Entry

13.8¢ → 32.5¢

+136% since entry · 15 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 27 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes68%

No33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No15 traders

Total Value$6.5K

Total Shares19,293

Combined PnL+$3.6K

Yes12 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,377

Combined PnL-$237.02

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 9.1¢	$1.3K	$4.2K	+$2.9K	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 17.6¢	$322.75	$597.31	+$274.56	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
NM NM-P	Yesavg 81¢	$493.56	$476.79	-$16.77	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-P	Yesavg 81¢	$434.27	$419.24	-$15.03	33% 251-499 (750)
VE VenusianCTR	Noavg 31.7¢	$380.37	$413.91	+$33.54	34% 735-1404 (2139)
RN1CTR	Noavg 18.1¢	$220.18	$404.74	+$184.56	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Yesavg 77.3¢	$305.17	$313.31	+$8.13	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 77.3¢	$256	$213.71	-$42.29
└ No leg	Noavg 17.5¢	$49.18	$99.6	+$50.42
LI LightParadoxARB<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$302.64	$240.52	+$5.08	35% 749-1385 (2134)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 83¢	$227.06	$184.66	-$36.5
└ No leg	Noavg 8.3¢	$14.29	$55.86	+$41.57
MA MadridTimeCTR	Noavg 28.2¢	$200.68	$231.26	+$30.58	36% 761-1361 (2122)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Noavg 33¢	$236.03	$207.42	-$28.61	36% 326-587 (913)
poshposh	Yesavg 91¢	$258.03	$202.47	-$55.57	46% 781-902 (1683)
SU suntori	Yesavg 83¢	$229.78	$186.87	-$42.91	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
WA WagerWizard	Yesavg 95.9¢	$243.12	$179.95	-$63.17	27% 72-194 (266)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Yesavg 82.5¢	$200	$172.13	-$27.87	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
FE ferdinand2CTR	Noavg 7¢	$31.91	$132.62	+$100.71	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
0X 0x8f8883ecf250d19cef876e6be32188b27f2bca10	Yesavg 71¢	$122.41	$122.41	+$0	— 5-7 (12)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 17¢	$48.84	$83.81	+$34.97	43% 808-1065 (1873)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 14¢	$31.01	$76.69	+$45.68	35% 735-1379 (2114)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 16.8¢	$53.7	$73.8	+$31.22	53% 1030-921 (1951)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 16.7¢	$35.72	$61.86	+$26.14	48% 677-745 (1422)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Yesavg 88.9¢	$75.72	$57.51	-$18.21	8% 27-316 (343)
tradecraft<$100	Yesavg 81¢	$20.3	$26.63	+$6.33	26% 250-703 (953)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Noavg 22.1¢	$10.62	$16.55	+$5.93	53% 631-566 (1197)
FO fooooolCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$9.85	$10	+$0.15	39% 37-59 (96)
WA waierma<$100	Yesavg 83¢	$10	$8.55	-$1.45	10% 11-100 (111)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$1,261.62

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$2.9K

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$322.75

Value

$597.31

PnL

+$274.56

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

NM-P

Yes

Invested

$493.56

Value

$476.79

PnL

-$16.77

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-P

Yes

Invested

$434.27

Value

$419.24

PnL

-$15.03

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

VenusianCTR

Invested

$380.37

Value

$413.91

PnL

+$33.54

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

RN1CTR

Invested

$220.18

Value

$404.74

PnL

+$184.56

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$305.17

Value

$313.31

PnL

+$8.13

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

Both legs:

Invested

$302.64

Value

$240.52

PnL

+$5.08

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

Both legs:

Yes$227.0683¢-$36.5

No$14.298.3¢+$41.57

MadridTimeCTR

Invested

$200.68

Value

$231.26

PnL

+$30.58

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

LuckyLooCTR

Invested

$236.03

Value

$207.42

PnL

-$28.61

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

poshposh

Yes

Invested

$258.03

Value

$202.47

PnL

-$55.57

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$229.78

Value

$186.87

PnL

-$42.91

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

WagerWizard

Yes

Invested

$243.12

Value

$179.95

PnL

-$63.17

Record

27%

72-194 (266)

xtxpleasecallme

Yes

Invested

$200

Value

$172.13

PnL

-$27.87

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

ferdinand2CTR

Invested

$31.91

Value

$132.62

PnL

+$100.71

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

0x8f8883ecf250d19cef876e6be32188b27f2bca10

Yes

Invested

$122.41

Value

$122.41

PnL

+$0

Record

—

5-7 (12)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$48.84

Value

$83.81

PnL

+$34.97

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$31.01

Value

$76.69

PnL

+$45.68

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$53.7

Value

$73.8

PnL

+$31.22

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$35.72

Value

$61.86

PnL

+$26.14

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Yes

Invested

$75.72

Value

$57.51

PnL

-$18.21

Record

27-316 (343)

tradecraft<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.3

Value

$26.63

PnL

+$6.33

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Invested

$10.62

Value

$16.55

PnL

+$5.93

Record

53%

631-566 (1197)

fooooolCTR<$100

Invested

$9.85

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.15

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

waierma<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$8.55

PnL

-$1.45

Record

10%

11-100 (111)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 33%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

15 of 27 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 68%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed15 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.