Consensus Lost β
Smart money consensus was Over β but Under won instead.
Kuching City FC vs. Gangwon FC: O/U 2.5
Resolved Under. 67% of the top Polymarket traders held Over. The smart money was wrong.
π
Lost
6
Over 80%
1 arb excluded
$1.0K
-$941.78
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 45.9Β’ | $969.33 | $534.86 | -$434.47 | 50% 28410-28315 (56725) |
| β Under leg | Underavg 43.7Β’ | $233.76 | $534.86 | +$301.1 | |
| β Over leg | Overavg 45.9Β’ | $735.57 | β | -$735.57 | |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 49.7Β’ | $272.75 | $472 | +$199.24 | 51% 25716-24429 (50145) |
RO Rocky31CTR | Overavg 74.9Β’ | $1.1K | β | $-1.0K | 75% 1896-648 (2544) |
WA WagerWizardCTR<$100 | Overavg 71.7Β’ | $95.36 | β | -$95.36 | 84% 14844-2866 (17710) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100 | Overavg 12.5Β’ | $0.71 | β | -$0.71 | 59% 32944-23128 (56072) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 52Β’ | $2.6 | β | -$2.6 | 50% 25811-25501 (51312) |
DA dashattacker<$100 | Underavg 79.8Β’ | $0.21 | $0.36 | +$0.15 | 73% 2974-1118 (4092) |
Invested
$969.33
Value
$534.86
PnL
-$434.47
Record
50%
28410-28315 (56725)
Both legs:
Invested
$272.75
Value
$472
PnL
+$199.24
Record
51%
25716-24429 (50145)
Invested
$1,054.59
Value
β
PnL
$-1.0K
Record
75%
1896-648 (2544)
Invested
$95.36
Value
β
PnL
-$95.36
Record
84%
14844-2866 (17710)
Invested
$0.71
Value
β
PnL
-$0.71
Record
59%
32944-23128 (56072)
Invested
$2.6
Value
β
PnL
-$2.6
Record
50%
25811-25501 (51312)
Invested
$0.21
Value
$0.36
PnL
+$0.15
Record
73%
2974-1118 (4092)