LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 (BO5) - Worlds Playoffs
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold T1 (80%) · T1 at 82¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 7
⚖️
Neutral
T1
5
T1 80%
$9.9K
$93.23
82.1¢ → 81.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralT1 at 82%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on T1. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 binkybarnes55 | T1avg 82¢ | $1.7K | $4.1K | +$25 | 53% 584-523 (1107) |
GA GAMBLINGISCANCER69CTR | Karmine Corpavg 17¢ | $2.2K | $2.2K | +$63.58 | 67% 41-20 (61) |
25 254321758 | T1avg 82¢ | $2.0K | $2.1K | +$12.5 | 69% 451-205 (656) |
SU suntori | T1avg 83.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$7.9 | 45% 12937-15707 (28644) |
38 38791873984189 | T1avg 81.7¢ | $345.34 | $345.4 | +$0.05 | 47% 13029-14600 (27629) |
binkybarnes55Invested
$1,728.85
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$25
Record
53%
584-523 (1107)
Invested
$2,161.8
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$63.58
Record
67%
41-20 (61)
Invested
$2,050
Value
$2.1K
PnL
+$12.5
Record
69%
451-205 (656)
Invested
$1,144.94
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$7.9
Record
45%
12937-15707 (28644)
Invested
$345.34
Value
$345.4
PnL
+$0.05
Record
47%
13029-14600 (27629)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.