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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| sumolive | Paul973973 | -reef | siick | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 92% (897–81, n=978) | 59% (385–271, n=656) | 59% (486–344, n=830) |
| Consensus PnL | — | $4.4K | $20K | $99K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #241 | was PM monthly #792 | was PM monthly #999 | Hand-picked |
| Sides with the consensus | 0% (0 of 2 open) | 85% (17 of 20 open) | no open consensus position | 75% (40 of 53 open) |
| Strongest topics | not computed yet |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | — | Finance −1 pts, n=38 | — | NFL −7 pts, n=19 |
| Settled positions, side won | — | 99% of 901 at avg 94¢, ROI +3% | 56% of 559 at avg 49¢, ROI +5% | 68% of 1019 at avg 56¢, ROI +6% |
| Entries under 30¢ | — | 1% (won 40% of 5) | 26% (won 26% of 147) | 21% (won 22% of 209) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | — | 1% (won 50% of 6) | 26% (won 42% of 144) | 14% (won 57% of 143) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | — | 1% (won 100% of 5) | 23% (won 65% of 126) | 30% (won 72% of 304) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | — | 98% (won 99% of 885) | 25% (won 92% of 142) | 36% (won 95% of 363) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | sumolive | Paul973973 | -reef | siick |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? same side · consensus No | — | No $3.0K | — | No $399 |