PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
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Record (consensus markets)57% (340–259, n=599)95% (1938–95, n=2033)59% (2322–1582, n=3904)49% (7025–7367, n=14392)
Consensus PnL$69K$36.5M$36K$13.2M
Tracked asPM monthly #74PM monthly #48PM monthly #247Hand-picked
Sides with the consensus100% (2 of 2 open)no open consensus position78% (100 of 128 open)82% (14 of 17 open)
Strongest topics
Weakest topic——Tennis −4 pts, n=294—
Settled positions, side won84% of 390 at avg 55¢, ROI +10%100% of 1652 at avg 53¢, ROI +48%56% of 4201 at avg 56¢, ROI +1%92% of 20730 at avg 58¢, ROI +35%
Entries under 30¢5% (won 39% of 18)1% (won 100% of 24)28% (won 7% of 1156)10% (won 49% of 2167)
Entries 30–50¢35% (won 77% of 135)41% (won 100% of 670)12% (won 36% of 520)22% (won 92% of 4547)
Entries 50–70¢44% (won 88% of 171)49% (won 100% of 805)15% (won 61% of 611)36% (won 98% of 7502)
Entries 70¢ and up17% (won 98% of 66)9% (won 100% of 153)46% (won 90% of 1914)31% (won 100% of 6514)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.