PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
prosperity80x9276a06e653bb5c9be6854ba37c8f9167f405786YABLAKOrated
Record (consensus markets)no settled market53% (26–23, n=49)79% (22–6, n=28)46% (227–267, n=494)
Consensus PnL—-$479$14K-$1.8M
Tracked asPM monthly #508PM monthly #880was PM monthly #931Hand-picked
Sides with the consensusno open consensus positionno open consensus positionno open consensus position39% (12 of 31 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yetnone with 10+ settled
Weakest topic—Tennis −8 pts, n=62—MLB −2 pts, n=17
Settled positions, side won—90% of 62 at avg 98¢, ROI 0%82% of 28 at avg 46¢, ROI +45%98% of 5076 at avg 92¢, ROI −32%
Entries under 30¢—2% (won 0% of 1)7% (won 50% of 2)5% (won 75% of 268)
Entries 30–50¢—0%57% (won 88% of 16)1% (won 65% of 62)
Entries 50–70¢—0%29% (won 88% of 8)2% (won 90% of 100)
Entries 70¢ and up—98% (won 92% of 61)7% (won 50% of 2)92% (won 100% of 4646)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.