PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
pkmgoh920x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-17706582427100xd4aa6f8e91cfea29b66a48ebff52814StakesForFun
Record (consensus markets)no settled market49% (1213–1271, n=2484)47% (157–176, n=333)59% (160–110, n=270)
Consensus PnL—$60K-$443K$106K
Tracked aswas PM monthly #771Hand-pickedPM monthly #57PM monthly #180
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position25% (3 of 12 open)50% (1 of 2 open)100% (1 of 1 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • NBA +6 pts n=39, ROI +14%
  • Tennis +8 pts n=10, ROI +29%
none with 10+ settled
Weakest topic—Politics −6 pts, n=74MLB −4 pts, n=14—
Settled positions, side won—55% of 1049 at avg 50¢, ROI +8%48% of 322 at avg 47¢, ROI 0%62% of 341 at avg 60¢, ROI +2%
Entries under 30¢—24% (won 19% of 254)16% (won 13% of 52)8% (won 4% of 28)
Entries 30–50¢—23% (won 40% of 241)40% (won 45% of 128)24% (won 34% of 82)
Entries 50–70¢—29% (won 70% of 304)33% (won 60% of 106)37% (won 64% of 126)
Entries 70¢ and up—24% (won 89% of 250)11% (won 78% of 36)31% (won 95% of 105)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.