PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
pkmgoh92yen4u0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-1770658242710tradecraft
Record (consensus markets)no settled market91% (654–64, n=718)49% (1213–1271, n=2484)49% (2015–2122, n=4137)
Consensus PnL—$67K$60K$912K
Tracked aswas PM monthly #771PM monthly #596Hand-pickedPM monthly #293
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position89% (42 of 47 open)25% (3 of 12 open)40% (4 of 10 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • Tennis +7 pts n=1516, ROI +4%
  • Soccer +7 pts n=521, ROI +4%
  • NFL +11 pts n=102, ROI +19%
Weakest topic——Politics −6 pts, n=74—
Settled positions, side won—94% of 613 at avg 90¢, ROI +3%55% of 1049 at avg 50¢, ROI +8%57% of 2284 at avg 50¢, ROI +4%
Entries under 30¢—4% (won 26% of 27)24% (won 19% of 254)31% (won 10% of 707)
Entries 30–50¢—2% (won 57% of 14)23% (won 40% of 241)18% (won 47% of 401)
Entries 50–70¢—5% (won 80% of 30)29% (won 70% of 304)19% (won 77% of 426)
Entries 70¢ and up—88% (won 99% of 542)24% (won 89% of 250)33% (won 96% of 750)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.