PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
JoeBlack010x39dec86bf03744359f839071cdd9a7d1adce7a1dbubananaSmallFishInWhaleStomach
Record (consensus markets)59% (291–202, n=493)89% (25–3, n=28)68% (65–31, n=96)89% (124–15, n=139)
Consensus PnL$73K$12K$159K$97K
Tracked asHand-pickedwas PM monthly #999was PM monthly #936PM monthly #962
Sides with the consensus61% (20 of 33 open)no open consensus positionno open consensus position100% (2 of 2 open)
Strongest topics
Weakest topicCrypto −5 pts, n=48——Geopolitics −1 pts, n=45
Settled positions, side won69% of 614 at avg 60¢, ROI +5%84% of 25 at avg 61¢, ROI +19%74% of 87 at avg 47¢, ROI +33%86% of 157 at avg 80¢, ROI +3%
Entries under 30¢23% (won 12% of 140)12% (won 67% of 3)8% (won 71% of 7)8% (won 8% of 13)
Entries 30–50¢13% (won 47% of 81)16% (won 75% of 4)52% (won 67% of 45)8% (won 62% of 13)
Entries 50–70¢14% (won 78% of 86)40% (won 90% of 10)34% (won 80% of 30)9% (won 64% of 14)
Entries 70¢ and up50% (won 97% of 307)32% (won 88% of 8)6% (won 100% of 5)75% (won 100% of 117)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketJoeBlack010x39dec86bf03744359f839071cdd9a7d1adce7a1dbubananaSmallFishInWhaleStomach
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
Yes $1.2K——Yes $1.9K