PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
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Record (consensus markets)no settled market87% (174–27, n=201)85% (236–41, n=277)49% (813–835, n=1648)
Consensus PnL—$123K$429K$3.4M
Tracked asPM monthly #995was PM monthly #920 + pinnedPM monthly #485PM monthly #24
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position91% (10 of 11 open)82% (58 of 71 open)no open consensus position
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
Weakest topic—Geopolitics −1 pts, n=116——
Settled positions, side won—85% of 340 at avg 84¢, ROI +3%91% of 289 at avg 89¢, ROI +1%99% of 740 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%
Entries under 30¢—4% (won 8% of 12)8% (won 0% of 22)5% (won 93% of 40)
Entries 30–50¢—4% (won 42% of 12)1% (won 50% of 4)41% (won 99% of 305)
Entries 50–70¢—7% (won 52% of 25)2% (won 86% of 7)49% (won 99% of 363)
Entries 70¢ and up—86% (won 92% of 291)89% (won 100% of 256)4% (won 100% of 32)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.