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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| balerinacapuchina | LuckyWin | Bonereaper | RN1 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 88% (693–98, n=791) | 86% (43246–6849, n=50095) | 49% (9610–10110, n=19720) |
| Consensus PnL | — | $29K | $14.9M | $13.3M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #471 | was PM monthly #579 | PM monthly #273 | Hand-picked |
| Sides with the consensus | 100% (1 of 1 open) | 80% (4 of 5 open) | 60% (9 of 15 open) | 53% (17 of 32 open) |
| Strongest topics | not computed yet |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | — | NBA −7 pts, n=48 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | — | 88% of 738 at avg 88¢, ROI 0% | 98% of 36616 at avg 67¢, ROI +24% | 93% of 20810 at avg 58¢, ROI +35% |
| Entries under 30¢ | — | 7% (won 8% of 48) | 4% (won 85% of 1370) | 10% (won 53% of 2181) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | — | 4% (won 44% of 32) | 16% (won 95% of 5840) | 22% (won 94% of 4645) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | — | 7% (won 56% of 48) | 35% (won 98% of 12695) | 37% (won 99% of 7657) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | — | 83% (won 99% of 610) | 46% (won 100% of 16711) | 30% (won 100% of 6327) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | balerinacapuchina | LuckyWin | Bonereaper | RN1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? same side · consensus Yes | Yes $256 | Yes $1 | — | — |