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PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
SosneoBreakTheBankjoseph006770x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188
Record (consensus markets)42% (13–18, n=31)45% (542–652, n=1194)53% (10–9, n=19)46% (131–154, n=285)
Consensus PnL$28K$11.0M$5.6M-$6.6M
Tracked aswas PM monthly #866PM monthly #1PM monthly #2was PM monthly #715
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position91% (150 of 165 open)no open consensus positionno open consensus position
Strongest topicsnone with 10+ settled
  • NFL +51 pts n=134, ROI +50%
  • NBA +49 pts n=93, ROI +48%
  • Soccer +40 pts n=279, ROI +38%
  • NHL +4 pts n=196, ROI +5%
Weakest topic———College Basketball −12 pts, n=174
Settled positions, side won36% of 22 at avg 38¢, ROI −10%97% of 552 at avg 53¢, ROI +41%59% of 17 at avg 57¢, ROI +31%49% of 1341 at avg 50¢, ROI −2%
Entries under 30¢41% (won 0% of 9)10% (won 82% of 56)12% (won 0% of 2)0% (won 17% of 6)
Entries 30–50¢23% (won 40% of 5)36% (won 98% of 198)6% (won 0% of 1)42% (won 46% of 565)
Entries 50–70¢23% (won 60% of 5)35% (won 99% of 191)65% (won 73% of 11)57% (won 51% of 766)
Entries 70¢ and up14% (won 100% of 3)19% (won 100% of 107)18% (won 67% of 3)0% (won 100% of 4)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.