← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| Devilswithjoystick | timesoft | TheyAreTakingTheHobitsToIsengard | Naichli | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 94% (46–3, n=49) | 95% (136–7, n=143) | 46% (607–708, n=1315) |
| Consensus PnL | — | -$4.1K | $476K | $81K |
| Tracked as | was PM monthly #991 | PM monthly #641 | was PM monthly #149 | Hand-picked |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | no open consensus position | 75% (3 of 4 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled | none with 10+ settled |
| |
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | Mentions −1 pts, n=556 |
| Settled positions, side won | 78% of 9 at avg 39¢, ROI +60% | 71% of 7 at avg 74¢, ROI −23% | 99% of 147 at avg 66¢, ROI +37% | 48% of 1738 at avg 47¢, ROI +1% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 22% (won 100% of 2) | 14% (won 0% of 1) | 0% | 36% (won 6% of 622) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 56% (won 60% of 5) | 14% (won 100% of 1) | 16% (won 96% of 23) | 14% (won 47% of 240) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 11% (won 100% of 1) | 0% | 44% (won 100% of 64) | 20% (won 58% of 350) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 11% (won 100% of 1) | 71% (won 80% of 5) | 41% (won 100% of 60) | 30% (won 92% of 526) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.